When the Utah Jazz selected Ace Bailey with the 5th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, they weren’t just adding a talented young wing — they were making a statement. Bailey, a 6’8” forward out of Rutgers, entered the draft process as perhaps the most intriguing prospect outside of Cooper Flagg. His combination of length, athleticism, and scoring touch has drawn comparisons to future All-Stars. But his pre-draft journey also raised eyebrows, creating one of the more polarizing storylines of this year’s class.
The Draft-Day Backstory
Bailey’s approach to the draft was unconventional. Reports surfaced that he released a list of preferred teams and canceled workouts with others — a move that fueled media backlash and speculation about his mindset. Despite that, the Jazz front office saw opportunity where others saw risk, calling Bailey a “dream draft scenario” and seizing the chance to add him to their roster.
Shooting Profile: A Tale of Two Percentages
In his lone season at Rutgers, Bailey shot roughly 35% from three — solid for a player his size. But dig deeper into the numbers and a strange split appears:
- Guarded Catch-and-Shoot: ~43–44%
- Unguarded Catch-and-Shoot: ~25%
Usually, you’d expect the opposite. Yet, Bailey’s quick release, squared-up footwork, and confidence against tight coverage hint at untapped shooting upside. If he can bring more consistency to his shot selection, he has the tools to become a legitimate floor-spacing threat at the NBA level.
Athleticism & Finishing Ability
Bailey’s physical tools are undeniable. At 6’8” with long arms and fluid movement, he excelled as an off-ball finisher in college — cutting to the rim, catching lobs in transition, and pressuring defenses without dominating the ball. The next step for him will be developing as a self-creator, using his first step and length to beat defenders off the dribble. When he did attack in isolation, flashes of that potential were clear, but it’s an area that still needs more reps.
Playmaking Concerns
For all his offensive potential, Bailey’s assist numbers in college were alarmingly low — just around 30 total for the entire season. In an NBA system, especially one like Utah’s that values ball movement, improving his vision and willingness to pass will be crucial. Summer League showed glimpses of progress, but this will be one of the key areas to monitor early in his career.
Isolation Game: Weapon or Warning Sign?
Nearly 20% of Bailey’s possessions at Rutgers came in isolation — an extremely high usage rate (99th percentile nationally). While that sounds promising, the tape shows a mixed bag. Too often, possessions ended in hesitation, jab steps, and contested jumpers. The best moments came when he attacked decisively, using his length to finish at the rim. At the NBA level, indecision will be punished, and developing more consistent, aggressive reads will determine if he can become a go-to scorer.
Defensive Potential
If Bailey wants to secure minutes as a rookie, defense might be his ticket. His length allows him to contest shots, disrupt passing lanes, and rotate effectively as a help defender. In transition, he can be a real problem for opposing offenses. The Jazz will likely lean on this side of his game early while the offensive polish catches up.
The Jazz Fit: Taking a Swing in a Small Market
For Utah, the Bailey pick represents the calculated risks that small-market teams have to take. Franchise cornerstone-level wings aren’t often available in free agency, so the draft becomes the best chance to land one. Pairing Bailey with pieces like Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Kyle Filipowski gives the Jazz a mix of size, skill, and lineup flexibility.
In many ways, this is a “can’t lose” scenario for Utah. If Bailey hits his ceiling, he could be the two-way star that elevates the Jazz into contention. If not, they still took a swing worth taking.
Final Word: Ace Bailey’s rookie season will be defined by how quickly he adapts to NBA pace and physicality, particularly in decision-making and shot creation. His physical tools and flashes of brilliance make him one of the more captivating rookies to watch in 2025 — and in Utah, he’ll have the space to grow without the immediate pressure of a win-now mandate.
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